“It takes Two Baby” – USA and China are the Key to Any Climate Agreement

There is a delicate dance taking place between the world’s two largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting nations – the United States and China.    Together, these two countries represent over 40% of the world’s GHG output and if they can come to an agreement, there is strong possibility for a World Climate Agreement to be penned in Copenhagen.

While China has pledged to cut its rate of carbon growth by 40-50% relative to its growth, it is balking at direct verification of its reduction claims by outside parties.  Currently, under the Kyoto Protocol, China submits “national communications” to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This means China is regulating itself.

The United States has passed a Climate Action Bill through Congress and has says it is willing to put similar legislation through the Senate this spring, but insists that countries like China should be subject to “transparent”  verification of reduction claims.  US Democratic Senator John Kerry explained that “without transparency,” (code for international inspection), it is unlikely that the US Senate would pass carbon emission cuts.  Clearly, the United States is not impressed with the current self-regulatory reporting to the UNFCCC.

A final note: the House version of the US Climate Bill threatens unilateral trade sanctions for countries not meeting a similar target to the American target.  So, China faces a possible import tax on its trade with the US.  When the two leaders, Mr. Obama and Hu Jintao, arrive later today there will be a final opportunity for compromise.  Let’s hope these two leaders have developed a cooperative rapport during their recent meetings in China, because it looks like both will need to compromise from their current stated positions.   Just like the Marvin Gaye Motown refrain … it takes two, b-a-b-y …

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